12 BUIDINGS

2025 U.S.–Canada Trade War Timeline

"Sean's intro paragraph"

Timeline of events

April 2, 2025 – Liberation Day
U.S. President Donald Trump announced his sweeping "reciprocal tariffs" in a White House address, targeting countries with higher import duties than the U.S. For now, Canada remains largely exempt due to ongoing negotiations.
 
March 26, 2025
Trump announced 25% tariffs on foreign-made vehicles and auto components (effective April 2), excluding USMCA-compliant vehicles.
 
March 13, 2025
U.S. and Canadian officials met in Washington to discuss resolving the trade war. Broader negotiations were postponed until after Canada’s federal election.
 
March 12, 2025
Steel and aluminum tariffs come into effect. Canada adds $29.8 billion in counter-tariffs on U.S. goods.
 
March 6, 2025
Trump exempted USMCA-compliant trade (representing 40% of Canadian exports) from tariffs until April 2. Canada maintained retaliatory tariffs on non-exempt goods.
 
March 4, 2025
U.S. tariffs take effect after Trump deems border efforts insufficient. Canada imposes 25% tariffs on $30 billion of U.S. goods (e.g., alcohol, appliances), with provinces initiating boycotts of U.S. products.
 
February 13, 2025
President Trump announced 25% global steel and aluminum tariffs (effective March 12) and plans for “reciprocal” tariffs on all imports starting April 2.
 
February 3, 2025
Tariffs are suspended for 30 days after Canada and Mexico agree to bolster border security. Canada appointed a “fentanyl czar” and designated Mexican cartels as terrorist groups.
 
February 1, 2025
President Trump ordered 25% tariffs on most Canadian and Mexican goods (with a 10% rate on energy exports) effective February 4. Canada responded by announcing retaliatory tariffs on $30 billion of U.S. goods.
 
January 20, 2025
President Trump delayed tariffs to February 1 and signed an executive order initiating an “America First Trade Policy,” which directed a review of the USMCA ahead of its 2026 renewal.
 
December 11, 2024
Canadian premiers confirmed preparations for retaliatory tariffs after meeting with Prime Minister Justin Trudeau. Their focus was prioritizing exemptions for energy exports.
 
November 25, 2024
President Trump announced plans to impose 25% tariffs on all Canadian and Mexican imports starting January 20, 2025, unless both countries take steps to curb fentanyl trafficking and illegal border crossings.
 

Liberation day developments

U.S. President Donald Trump announced his sweeping "reciprocal tariffs" in a White House address, targeting countries with higher import duties than the U.S. For now, Canada is largely exempt from these global levies due to ongoing negotiations.  

Key U.S. measures:

  • Establishes a 10% baseline tariff on imports from all countries not covered by existing trade agreements.
  • Imposes higher rates on specific nations: 34% on China, 20% on the EU, 26% on India, and 25% on Japan. 
  • Maintains 25% tariffs on foreign-made automobiles (effective April 3), excluding USMCA-compliant vehicles. 
  • Leaves steel and aluminum tariffs (25%) unchanged.  

Canada-specific exemtions:

  • USMCA-compliant goods are exempt from new reciprocal tariffs.
  • Temporary pause on 25% non-energy tariffs (originally tied to border security) remains under review.  

Canada's response

  • Prime Minister Mark Carney convenes an emergency cabinet meeting and consults the Canada-U.S. Relations Council to formulate a response. 
    • Retaliatory tariffs: Canada maintains 25% tariffs on $30 billion of U.S. goods (e.g., orange juice, appliances, alcohol) and $29.8 billion in steel/aluminum countermeasures enacted March 12–13. 
    • Strategic proposals: Carney expresses openness to a zero-tariff deal with the U.S. if Trump unilaterally lifts all duties, as revealed by Ontario Premier Doug Ford.  

Ongoing Uncertainties  

  • The U.S. has yet to clarify whether the 25% non-energy tariffs (paused since February 3) will be reinstated. 
  • Auto sector exemptions under USMCA remain contingent on the U.S. Commerce Department finalizing rules for taxing non-American vehicle components. 
  • Inflation risks continue in both countries, with the Canadian dollar hovering near 70 cents USD and markets reacting volatilely to tariff news.  

Future actions  

  • Canada’s additional $29.8 billion retaliatory tariffs to take full effect April 2.
  • Further negotiations are expected post-Canadian federal election.

Provincial responses

Ontario

  • March 4: Removed U.S. liquor from provincial stores and restricted U.S. companies from government procurement. 
  • March 5: Announced a 25% surcharge on electricity exports to Michigan, Minnesota, and New York, generating CA$300,000–CA$400,000 daily to support workers. 
  • March 11: Temporarily suspended the electricity surcharge after Trump reversed threats of 50% steel/aluminum tariffs. 
  • Procurement Restrictions: Canceled a $100M contract with Starlink ;and prioritized Canadian suppliers for government contracts.  

British Columbia

  • March 6: Directed liquor stores to halt purchases of U.S. alcohol from "red" states and remove such products from shelves. 
  • Trade Legislation: Proposed laws to enable tolls on U.S. commercial vehicles traveling through B.C. to Alaska and mandated low-carbon fuels to be Canadian-produced. 
  • Economic Strategy: Accelerated $20 billion in projects , creating 8,000 jobs and launching task forces to diversify export markets and address softwood lumber disputes.  

Manitoba

  • March 6: Required cabinet approval for Manitoba Hydro’s new U.S. power contracts and extensions, signaling potential curbs on hydroelectric exports. 
  • Retaliatory Measures: Removed U.S. alcohol from liquor stores and introduced a “Buy Canadian” policy for provincial procurement. 
  • Energy Leverage: Considered a 25% surcharge on electricity exports (mirroring Ontario’s approach) but delayed implementation, citing economic concerns.  

Cross-Provincial Coordination

  • Internal Trade: British Columbia., Manitoba, and other provinces committed to reducing interprovincial trade barriers by June 1, 2025, as part of a unified economic strategy.  

Additional resources

Episode 21 – Navigating Tariffs with Sean Grant-Young & Dean Morris

Frankie and Sarah discuss tariffs with experts Sean and Dean.

Episode 3 – Opportunity Rocks with Rocky Bhatia

Host Rocky Bhatia and guest Sean Grant‑Young explore Canadian tax changes and more!

Navigating trade uncertainty: Tax planning and transfer pricing strategies

Proposed U.S. tariffs on Canadian imports create uncertainty. We offer expert guidance.